Acute Exacerbation

This multicenter bidirectional cohort study aims to develop and externally validate a machine learning model for predicting the risk of acute exacerbation within 1 year in patients with allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) during the stable phase, and further to evaluate the model's practical value in risk stratification and clinical decision-making. All patients diagnosed with ABPA according to the ISHAM 2024 criteria will be assigned to either the acute exacerbation group or the non-exacerbation group based on whether they experience an acute exacerbation within 1 year. Enrolled participants will be randomly divided into a training set and an internal validation set. During the feature selection phase, univariate analysis, collinearity diagnostics, feature importance ranking derived from nine machine learning algorithms, and expert consensus are comprehensively applied, ultimately leading to the development of 12 independent machine learning models. Model performance is assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and its area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, F1-score, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis. In addition, external validation further enhances the credibility of the model. To improve clinical interpretability, the SHAP method is employed to quantify the contribution of each feature, and an interactive nomogram is constructed to facilitate clinical application. All participants will be followed up for 12 months, during which regular clinical and laboratory evaluations will be performed.

Bronchoscopy is an essential technique, routinely used in the differential diagnosis workup of many Interstitial Lung Diseases (ILDs) and in referral centres is a common procedure. Bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL), bronchial and transbronchial biopsies with forceps and cryoprobes, and lymph node sampling with endosonography represent the most used sampling techniques in these patients. However, patients with ILDs refer to medical attention in a wide range of clinical conditions from mild functional impairment, with absent or few respiratory symptoms, to severe lung involvement with low exercise tolerance and/or chronic respiratory failure. In these patients, a balance between benefits and risk, i.e. to the safety and diagnostic utility of bronchoscopy should be always carefully evaluated. Moreover, there is a wide variability in adverse events entity and frequency depending by procedures performed during bronchoscopy. Despite its crucial utility, only few data are available in the literature on the safety of bronchoscopy in patients with ILDs and limited data on the utility and safety of this sampling technique are present in patients with AE-ILDs. The primary aim of this study is to assess the overall rate of complications occurring within 24 hours after bronchoscopy. Study rate and type of complications occurring during the endoscopic procedure, within 30 days after bronchoscopy, in patients with AE-ILDs, among fibrotic Vs non-fibrotic ILD, and according to each employed sampling technique will be also recorded.