SPINE-RISK VE: Multimodal Predictive Model for Failed Back Surgery Syndrome in Venezuelan Surgical Patients

SPINE-RISK VE is a prospective multicenter cohort study designed to develop and internally validate a multimodal preoperative predictive model for Failed Back Surgery Syndrome (FBSS), now classified as Persistent Spinal Pain Syndrome Type 2 (PSPS-T2) per ICD-11 (code MG30.51), in Venezuelan adults patients undergoing elective lumbar spine surgery.

The model integrates three variable domains obtainable from routine preoperative evaluation at zero additional cost to the patient: (1) inflammatory laboratory biomarkers (C-reactive protein \[CRP\], neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio \[NLR\], albumin, glycated hemoglobin \[HbA1c\], erythrocyte sedimentation rate \[ESR\]); (2) preoperative lumbar magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings (Modic changes, Pfirrmann disc degeneration grade, foraminal stenosis, number of surgical levels, spondylolisthesis); and (3) validated psychosocial instruments (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 \[PHQ-9\], Pain Catastrophizing Scale \[PCS\], smoking status, benzodiazepine use, prior lumbar surgery).

Analysis proceeds in two phases: Phase 1 applies multivariable logistic regression with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) variable selection to generate a printable clinical nomogram; Phase 2 applies a random forest machine learning algorithm with 10-fold cross-validation. Model reporting follows Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis plus Artificial Intelligence (TRIPOD+AI) guidelines.

SPINE-RISK VE aims to produce the first validated multimodal predictive model for PSPS-T2/FBSS was developed in a Latin American surgical cohort, providing neurosurgeons with an evidence-based preoperative risk stratification tool applicable without Additional technological infrastructure.